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ESL One Summer 2021. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

Tundra Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 12 games
42%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 6 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sneyking · 6 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sneyking · 6 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 6 games
83%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Skiter · 6 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Fata · 5 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
378 picks · 972 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
370 picks · 201 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
362 picks · 585 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
339 picks · 362 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
294 picks · 172 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 218 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
282 picks · 625 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
272 picks · 464 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:37
PuckChamp 70%Tundra Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:00.
Game 2prediction missed20:47
PuckChamp 70%Tundra Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 58:08.
Game 3prediction missed16:34
PuckChamp 70%Tundra Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:15.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 70%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3