Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
V-Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 27 games
Linasignature
hAze · 19 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 15 games
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 15 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 15 games
Axeoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
369 picks · 173 bans
Hoodwink
348 picks · 123 bans
Lina
266 picks · 449 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 523 bans
Luna
249 picks · 344 bans
Winter Wyvern
240 picks · 246 bans
Dragon Knight
237 picks · 331 bans
Mars
236 picks · 409 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength57% V-Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total59% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:24
PuckChamp 41%V-Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 27:29.
Game 2prediction correct18:26
PuckChamp 41%V-Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 43:31.
Game 3prediction correct11:24
PuckChamp 41%V-Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 27:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 59%
Series resultV-Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3