Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO1
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Winstrike Teamwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Winstrike Team
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 15 games
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 14 games
Abaddonoften banned
Panto · 13 games
Lion
yamich · 13 games
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 12 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
Axeoften banned
chshrct · 11 games
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
313 picks · 174 bans
Hoodwink
277 picks · 99 bans
Lina
277 picks · 530 bans
Mars
271 picks · 398 bans
Pangolier
262 picks · 368 bans
Shadow Demon
238 picks · 252 bans
Luna
229 picks · 326 bans
Abaddon
208 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% PuckChamp
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total60% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:10
PuckChamp 60%Winstrike Team 40%
The model gave 60% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 29:32.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 60%
Series resultWinstrike Team 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1