Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
X3loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
X3
Bane
antoha · 22 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mastery · 11 games
Pugnaoften banned
antoha · 11 games
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
Invokersignature
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
477 picks · 659 bans
Tiny
471 picks · 448 bans
Bane
453 picks · 276 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 566 bans
Dragon Knight
413 picks · 491 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 574 bans
Grimstroke
347 picks · 296 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:32
PuckChamp 53%X3 47%
The model gave 53% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by X3 in 40:44.
Game 2prediction missed35:35
PuckChamp 53%X3 47%
The model gave 53% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by X3 in 58:26.
Game 3prediction missed33:13
PuckChamp 53%X3 47%
The model gave 53% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by X3 in 35:16.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 53%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3