Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Respectloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Zero Respect
Clockwerk
Davai · 2 games
Oracleoften banned
Davai · 1 game
Snapfire
Davai · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
158 picks · 280 bans
Puck
155 picks · 358 bans
Earth Spirit
144 picks · 116 bans
Void Spirit
136 picks · 196 bans
Phoenix
121 picks · 136 bans
Keeper of the Light
105 picks · 193 bans
Nyx Assassin
104 picks · 359 bans
Rubick
102 picks · 53 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:25
PuckChamp 77%Zero Respect 23%
The model gave 77% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Zero Respect in 31:34.
Game 2prediction missed36:8
PuckChamp 77%Zero Respect 23%
The model gave 77% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Zero Respect in 25:22.
Game 3prediction missed11:39
PuckChamp 77%Zero Respect 23%
The model gave 77% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Zero Respect in 25:18.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 77%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3