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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Qhaliwin 2:1
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lavaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Qhali

Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Hermit · 3 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
MonHty · 3 games
67%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Hermit · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
50%
Clinkz
Clinkz
Cucahook · 2 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Luis · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 2 games
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Robo-Z · 2 games
100%

Lava

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 7 games
71%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
0%
Lich
Lich
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
507 picks · 337 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
484 picks · 476 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
472 picks · 414 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
351 picks · 405 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
347 picks · 339 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
301 picks · 157 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 683 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
262 picks · 168 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 71%
Hero pool strength51% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:23
Qhali 39%Lava 61%
The model gave 61% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 44:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackCucahook
49% · 22 games46% · 85 games
Sniperpayk
Sniper
Lina
LinaRobo-Z
53% · 76 games52% · 205 games
ClockwerkJimmyCoff666
Clockwerk
Beastmaster
BeastmasterHermit
57% · 110 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMonHty
37% · 69 games
Omniknight
OmniknightLuis
67% · 13 games
Game 2prediction missed20:12
Qhali 39%Lava 61%
The model gave 61% on Lava — the game was taken by Qhali in 39:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaCucahook
49% · 81 game39% · 99 games
Drow Rangerpayk
Drow Ranger
Brewmaster
BrewmasterHermit
59% · 19 games47% · 188 games
UndyingJimmyCoff666
Undying
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRobo-Z
57% · 74 games
Mirana
MiranaMonHty
68% · 50 games
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLuis
51% · 63 games
Game 3prediction missed41:28
Qhali 39%Lava 61%
The model gave 61% on Lava — the game was taken by Qhali in 1:06:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCucahook
57% · 86 games42% · 153 games
Terrorbladepayk
Terrorblade
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightRobo-Z
66% · 57 games44% · 185 games
DawnbreakerJimmyCoff666
Dawnbreaker
Doom
DoomMonHty
57% · 67 games
Visage
VisageHermit
56% · 74 games
Undying
UndyingLuis
49% · 54 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 72%
Series resultQhali 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3