The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quantum Team
No games played over 6 months.
Kalmychata
Bane
smN · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hina · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
rincyq · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
hina · 1 game
Luna
rincyq · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
rincyq · 1 game
Treant Protector
smN · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
451 picks · 705 bans
Centaur Warrunner
435 picks · 616 bans
Gyrocopter
428 picks · 396 bans
Batrider
411 picks · 756 bans
Rubick
388 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 749 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1044 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Quantum Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Quantum Team 25%Kalmychata 75%
The model gave 75% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Game 2prediction correct
Quantum Team 25%Kalmychata 75%
The model gave 75% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 75%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2