ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamloss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quantum Team
Magnus
Rvze · 8 games
Phoenixsignature
Fezor · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Somnia · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 6 games
Snapfire
Somnia · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 5 games
Lunaoften banned
bashka · 4 games
Marsoften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 4 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
428 picks · 541 bans
Clockwerk
374 picks · 371 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 439 bans
Luna
313 picks · 370 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 567 bans
Dark Willow
276 picks · 145 bans
Dragon Knight
262 picks · 341 bans
Batrider
256 picks · 242 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 71%
Hero pool strength51% Quantum Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:45
Quantum Team 32%PuckChamp 68%
The model gave 68% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 45:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunabashka
Dragon KnightShad
Templar AssassinRvze
TimbersawBOOM
RubickSomnia
RazorSancity
Ogre MagiFezor
HoodwinkKaori
47% · 186 games
LionQBFY
Game 2prediction correct20:25
Quantum Team 19%PuckChamp 81%
The model gave 81% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 34:37.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 81%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2