The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
V1dar Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quantum Team
No games played over 6 months.
V1dar Gaming
Dark Willow
Groom · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
dizzying · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Groom · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Groom · 1 game
Gyrocopter
dizzying · 1 game
Luna
dizzying · 1 game
Pudgeoften banned
dizzying · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
455 picks · 730 bans
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 628 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 404 bans
Batrider
405 picks · 759 bans
Rubick
389 picks · 163 bans
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 1039 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 746 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% Quantum Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% V1dar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:15
Quantum Team 45%V1dar Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on V1dar Gaming — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 41:09.
Game 2prediction missed14:42
Quantum Team 45%V1dar Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on V1dar Gaming — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 30:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteV1dar Gaming · 55%
Series resultQuantum Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2