Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4 Zoomersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
153 picks · 271 bans
Puck
148 picks · 346 bans
Earth Spirit
136 picks · 113 bans
Void Spirit
130 picks · 190 bans
Phoenix
118 picks · 130 bans
Nyx Assassin
102 picks · 343 bans
Keeper of the Light
100 picks · 183 bans
Rubick
97 picks · 49 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:41
Quincy Crew 56%4 Zoomers 44%
The model gave 56% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 37:54.
Game 2prediction missed17:33
Quincy Crew 56%4 Zoomers 44%
The model gave 56% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 38:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 56%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2