Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4 Zoomersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
298 picks · 442 bans
Bane
268 picks · 201 bans
Tidehunter
268 picks · 405 bans
Monkey King
267 picks · 678 bans
Weaver
245 picks · 496 bans
Snapfire
230 picks · 132 bans
Void Spirit
215 picks · 252 bans
Lina
211 picks · 478 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:42
Quincy Crew 43%4 Zoomers 57%
The model gave 57% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 45:02.
Game 2prediction correct27:11
Quincy Crew 43%4 Zoomers 57%
The model gave 57% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 33:50.
Game 3prediction correct10:42
Quincy Crew 43%4 Zoomers 57%
The model gave 57% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 36:42.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 57%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3