Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
5RATFORCESTAFF
Banesignature
Overlom · 11 games
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 8 games
Medusasignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
red2 · 7 games
Hoodwink
Giant · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Giant · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 640 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 435 bans
Bane
446 picks · 270 bans
Sand King
409 picks · 560 bans
Dragon Knight
398 picks · 477 bans
Storm Spirit
398 picks · 642 bans
Pangolier
359 picks · 558 bans
Keeper of the Light
332 picks · 660 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 82%
Hero pool strength64% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:27
Quincy Crew 69%5RATFORCESTAFF 31%
The model gave 69% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 25:28.
Game 2prediction missed14:36
Quincy Crew 69%5RATFORCESTAFF 31%
The model gave 69% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 42:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 69%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2