Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Eternityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Eternity
Witch Doctor
Jubei · 4 games
Earthshaker
FrancisLee · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
FrancisLee · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Ryoya · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ryoya · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Jubei · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jubei · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Ryoya · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
242 picks · 507 bans
Void Spirit
221 picks · 273 bans
Mars
205 picks · 376 bans
Earth Spirit
192 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
165 picks · 281 bans
Phoenix
161 picks · 187 bans
Nyx Assassin
159 picks · 511 bans
Wraith King
151 picks · 195 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:33
Quincy Crew 67%Eternity 33%
The model gave 67% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Eternity in 23:07.
Game 2prediction missed13:29
Quincy Crew 67%Eternity 33%
The model gave 67% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Eternity in 34:05.
Game 3prediction missed24:12
Quincy Crew 67%Eternity 33%
The model gave 67% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Eternity in 29:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 67%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3