Quincy Crew vs Evil Geniuses — prediction DPC2—САФ · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка. Финал · BO3

result vs prediction

Quincy Crewloss 1:2

series probability

42%58%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Evil Geniuseswin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Quincy Crew

No games played over 6 months.

Evil Geniuses

Marsoften banned

Tavo · 10 games

10%

Iooften banned

KJ · 9 games

11%

Mirana

Thiolicor · 8 games

38%

Svensignature

Costabile · 8 games

63%

Gyrocopter

Costabile · 7 games

Doomoften banned

Hyko · 6 games

17%

Invokeroften banned

4dr · 6 games

50%

Ogre Magi

KJ · 6 games

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Bane

547 picks · 383 bans

57%

Queen of Pain

461 picks · 553 bans

52%

Mars

447 picks · 636 bans

52%

Weaver

432 picks · 823 bans

54%

Snapfire

356 picks · 180 bans

44%

Kunkka

341 picks · 533 bans

54%

Spirit Breaker

340 picks · 567 bans

52%

Wraith King

279 picks · 321 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)69% vs 57%

Hero pool strength61% Quincy Crew

Head-to-head1 – 2

Model total58% Evil Geniuses

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct4:24

Quincy Crew 42%Evil Geniuses 58%

The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 24:16.

Game 2prediction correct22:32

Quincy Crew 42%Evil Geniuses 58%

The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 38:42.

Game 3prediction correct43:9

Quincy Crew 42%Evil Geniuses 58%

The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 34:26.

Model check result

Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 58%

Series resultEvil Geniuses 1:2

Series predictioncorrect

Accuracy by game3 of 3