The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewloss 1:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Fnaticloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
300 picks · 177 bans
Mars
287 picks · 401 bans
Lina
282 picks · 545 bans
Hoodwink
259 picks · 90 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 375 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 258 bans
Tidehunter
227 picks · 383 bans
Luna
226 picks · 324 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:15
Quincy Crew 44%Fnatic 56%
The model gave 56% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic in 40:44.
Game 2prediction correct14:20
Quincy Crew 44%Fnatic 56%
The model gave 56% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic in 37:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 56%
Accuracy by game2 of 2