The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SG e-sportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
299 picks · 178 bans
Mars
285 picks · 398 bans
Lina
278 picks · 551 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 372 bans
Shadow Demon
248 picks · 257 bans
Hoodwink
245 picks · 89 bans
Tidehunter
235 picks · 399 bans
Void Spirit
220 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 22%
Hero pool strength50% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:43
Quincy Crew 66%SG e-sports 34%
The model gave 66% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 45:18.
Game 2prediction missed25:30
Quincy Crew 66%SG e-sports 34%
The model gave 66% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 51:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 66%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2