Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
277 picks · 419 bans
Tidehunter
271 picks · 396 bans
Monkey King
261 picks · 652 bans
Bane
242 picks · 186 bans
Weaver
232 picks · 450 bans
Lina
218 picks · 479 bans
Lion
207 picks · 108 bans
Void Spirit
207 picks · 263 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 23%
Hero pool strength50% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:16
Quincy Crew 79%simply TOOBASED 21%
The model gave 79% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 33:58.
Game 2prediction missed31:15
Quincy Crew 79%simply TOOBASED 21%
The model gave 79% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 26:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 79%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2