The International 10 (2021) · BO1
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 1:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Asterloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 22 games
Lion
BoBoKa · 17 games
Axesignature
Xxs · 15 games
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 15 games
Magnusoften banned
White丶Album · 14 games
Treant Protector
LaNm · 14 games
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 12 games
Linaoften banned
White丶Album · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
301 picks · 179 bans
Mars
290 picks · 401 bans
Lina
276 picks · 565 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 368 bans
Shadow Demon
247 picks · 253 bans
Hoodwink
243 picks · 89 bans
Tidehunter
241 picks · 408 bans
Tiny
224 picks · 274 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:20
Quincy Crew 41%Team Aster 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 40:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 59%
Series resultQuincy Crew 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1