Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Undyingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
395 picks · 1013 bans
Mars
371 picks · 606 bans
Lion
365 picks · 190 bans
Grimstroke
363 picks · 365 bans
Void Spirit
317 picks · 508 bans
Death Prophet
313 picks · 677 bans
Tusk
309 picks · 225 bans
Snapfire
265 picks · 146 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 53%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:1
Series predictionmissed