Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Cutloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
The Cut
Snapfire
Giant · 9 games
Bristlebacksignature
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
Marssignature
dnm · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 5 games
Bane
Overlom · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
475 picks · 281 bans
Mars
404 picks · 545 bans
Queen of Pain
356 picks · 502 bans
Weaver
354 picks · 464 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 515 bans
Kunkka
290 picks · 519 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 361 bans
Grimstroke
267 picks · 189 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% The Cut
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:36
Quincy Crew 83%The Cut 17%
The model gave 83% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by The Cut in 42:02.
Game 2prediction missed22:12
Quincy Crew 83%The Cut 17%
The model gave 83% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by The Cut in 33:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 83%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2