Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TSMwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
TSM
Bane
DuBu · 11 games
Weaversignature
MoonMeander · 9 games
Miranasignature
MoonMeander · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
MoonMeander · 7 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
bryle- · 7 games
Tidehuntersignature
SabeRLight- · 7 games
Disruptorsignature
DuBu · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
545 picks · 386 bans
Queen of Pain
457 picks · 554 bans
Mars
447 picks · 648 bans
Weaver
431 picks · 846 bans
Snapfire
357 picks · 181 bans
Kunkka
341 picks · 538 bans
Spirit Breaker
339 picks · 567 bans
Wraith King
280 picks · 321 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:32
Quincy Crew 42%TSM 58%
The model gave 58% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 36:01.
Game 2prediction correct19:27
Quincy Crew 42%TSM 58%
The model gave 58% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 35:01.
Game 3prediction correct26:4
Quincy Crew 42%TSM 58%
The model gave 58% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 20:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 58%
Series resultTSM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3