Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
TSM
Banesignature
DuBu · 19 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 11 games
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 10 games
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
bryle- · 10 games
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
493 picks · 445 bans
Mars
488 picks · 686 bans
Bane
462 picks · 282 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 514 bans
Sand King
413 picks · 568 bans
Storm Spirit
399 picks · 652 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 607 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 310 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 63%
Hero pool strength60% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total70% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:20
Quincy Crew 30%TSM 70%
The model gave 70% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 45:43.
Game 2prediction correct12:23
Quincy Crew 30%TSM 70%
The model gave 70% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 32:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 70%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2