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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Quincy Crew

No games played over 6 months.

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 24 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 21 game
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 19 games
53%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 18 games
83%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 17 games
65%
Spectre
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 17 games
82%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
411 picks · 211 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
406 picks · 623 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 958 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
364 picks · 202 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
359 picks · 342 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
313 picks · 228 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 381 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
267 picks · 198 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:25
Quincy Crew 43%Vici Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 24:27.
Game 2prediction correct20:11
Quincy Crew 43%Vici Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 39:00.
Game 3prediction correct35:18
Quincy Crew 43%Vici Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 33:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 57%
Series resultVici Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3