Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3. Открытая квалификация · BO3
result vs predictionQqwerty44win 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Khanloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
qwerty44
Hoodwink
Fezor · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Rvze · 1 game
Linaoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 1 game
Khan
Nyx Assassinoften banned
goddam · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
Chen
antoha · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Dodren · 2 games
Lunaoften banned
layme · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
439 picks · 183 bans
Hoodwink
335 picks · 128 bans
Nyx Assassin
313 picks · 627 bans
Puck
311 picks · 679 bans
Ancient Apparition
304 picks · 467 bans
Mars
295 picks · 522 bans
Dragon Knight
271 picks · 345 bans
Lina
261 picks · 357 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength61% Khan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% qwerty44
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteqwerty44 · 51%
Series resultqwerty44 2:0
Series predictioncorrect