Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs predictionQqwerty44loss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Khanwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
qwerty44
Invokeroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 10 games
Disruptor
Fezor · 8 games
Bane
Fezor · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Kom4rt · 4 games
Lunaoften banned
Kom4rt · 4 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Kom4rt · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 4 games
Clinkzoften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
Khan
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Dodren · 4 games
Bane
antoha · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 3 games
Marsoften banned
antoha · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
goddam · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
345 picks · 178 bans
Hoodwink
287 picks · 104 bans
Mars
272 picks · 416 bans
Lina
267 picks · 533 bans
Pangolier
264 picks · 365 bans
Luna
238 picks · 337 bans
Shadow Demon
234 picks · 245 bans
Nyx Assassin
217 picks · 463 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 50%
Hero pool strength65% Khan
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Khan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:33
qwerty44 36%Khan 64%
The model gave 64% on Khan — the game was taken by Khan in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinShigetsu
Morphlinglayme
Storm SpiritUSHUSHUSH
BatriderDodren
DisruptorFezor
BeastmasterpJonn
38% · 4 games
Skywrath Magegoddam
52% · 50 games
Shadow Demonantoha
Game 2prediction correct6:20
qwerty44 33%Khan 67%
The model gave 67% on Khan — the game was taken by Khan in 26:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerShigetsu
Medusalayme
RazorUSHUSHUSH
TidehunterpJonn
DisruptorFezor
TinyDodren
50% · 30 games
Dark Willowgoddam
47% · 22 games
Undyingantoha
Model check result
Model favoriteKhan · 75%
Series resultKhan 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2