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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
qwerty44loss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Empirewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

qwerty44

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Fezor · 1 game
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fezor · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fezor · 1 game
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Rvze · 1 game
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 1 game
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
0%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
0%

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 20 games
70%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 17 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 16 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 12 games
58%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
80%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
VANSKOR · 8 games
75%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 8 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
kiyotaka · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
431 picks · 193 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
349 picks · 135 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
308 picks · 631 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
301 picks · 674 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
290 picks · 459 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
286 picks · 507 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
282 picks · 354 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
260 picks · 226 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 80%
Hero pool strength65% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:32
qwerty44 36%Team Empire 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 25:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidKom4rt
49% · 72 games47% · 65 games
Templar Assassinkiyotaka
Templar Assassin
Invoker
InvokerUSHUSHUSH
53% · 131 game44% · 40 games
BloodseekerSmiling Knight
Bloodseeker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFezor
48% · 206 games50% · 149 games
MarsShachlo
Mars
57% · 57 games
Dark Willowsayuw
Dark Willow
50% · 98 games
AbaddonVANSKOR
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct10:39
qwerty44 35%Team Empire 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 25:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightKom4rt
54% · 16 games55% · 35 games
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritUSHUSHUSH
41% · 157 games66% · 68 games
Invokerkiyotaka
Invoker
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernFezor
47% · 110 games53% · 45 games
BeastmasterShachlo
Beastmaster
47% · 66 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
54% · 69 games
ClockwerkVANSKOR
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 74%
Series resultTeam Empire 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2