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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
qwertyloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

qwerty

No games played over 6 months.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
58%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Lodine · 5 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Lodine · 4 games
25%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
tatakae · 4 games
75%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 4 games
25%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Lodine · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
398 picks · 906 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
370 picks · 545 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
323 picks · 590 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
290 picks · 536 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
286 picks · 252 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 166 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
241 picks · 394 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 524 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% qwerty
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:40
qwerty 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:09:01.
Game 2prediction missed17:18
qwerty 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by qwerty in 28:24.
Game 3prediction correct24:22
qwerty 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 46:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 51%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3