CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
РАБОТЯГИwin 2:0series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Apple City Gangloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
РАБОТЯГИ
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 8 games
Slardar
spirit · 7 games
Tusk
lupsione · 7 games
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 6 games
Tinyoften banned
Wein · 6 games
Lion
lupsione · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mirele · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Mirele · 5 games
Apple City Gang
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 9 games
Marcioften banned
flacko · 7 games
Terrorbladesignature
yowaai · 7 games
Night Stalkersignature
Norma · 6 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 5 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
Tusk
QBFY · 5 games
Clockwerk
Astral · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
565 picks · 806 bans
Muerta
446 picks · 311 bans
Phantom Assassin
431 picks · 806 bans
Phoenix
430 picks · 671 bans
Bristleback
406 picks · 874 bans
Clockwerk
393 picks · 372 bans
Magnus
385 picks · 1057 bans
Pangolier
383 picks · 527 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 59%
Hero pool strength59% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Apple City Gang
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:32
РАБОТЯГИ 37%Apple City Gang 63%
The model gave 63% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by РАБОТЯГИ in 1:13:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey Kingssnovv1
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Outworld DestroyerMirele
Ursayowaai
Slardarspirit
Visagemangekyou
Tinkerasdekor_r
Jakiroflacko
TuskWein
Bounty HunterQBFY
Game 2prediction missed21:12
РАБОТЯГИ 35%Apple City Gang 65%
The model gave 65% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by РАБОТЯГИ in 42:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenssnovv1
Nature's Prophetyowaai
Templar AssassinMirele
Lycanmangekyou
Tidehunterspirit
Kunkkadualrazee
Phoenixasdekor_r
RingmasterQBFY
MuertaWein
Ancient Apparitionflacko
Model check result
Model favoriteApple City Gang · 75%
Series resultРАБОТЯГИ 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2