CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
РАБОТЯГИ
Tusksignature
Wein · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 9 games
Slardar
spirit · 9 games
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 6 games
Tinyoften banned
Wein · 6 games
Lion
lupsione · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mirele · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
asdekor_r · 5 games
Zero Tenacity
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 36 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 35 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 27 games
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
570 picks · 801 bans
Muerta
443 picks · 290 bans
Phantom Assassin
429 picks · 823 bans
Phoenix
410 picks · 638 bans
Bristleback
408 picks · 856 bans
Clockwerk
382 picks · 337 bans
Magnus
379 picks · 1004 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 508 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% РАБОТЯГИ
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:16
РАБОТЯГИ 33%Zero Tenacity 67%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by РАБОТЯГИ in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassinssnovv1
LifestealerRetsu
Templar AssassinMirele
LinaStojkov
Centaur Warrunnerspirit
Primal BeastNefrit
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
JakiroLeBronDota
TinyWein
RingmasterPablo
Game 2prediction missed28:13
РАБОТЯГИ 32%Zero Tenacity 68%
The model gave 68% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by РАБОТЯГИ in 33:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursassnovv1
TidehunterNefrit
Storm SpiritMirele
SlarkRetsu
Medusaspirit
Dragon KnightStojkov
Jakiroasdekor_r
MuertaPablo
TinyWein
Ancient ApparitionLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 79%
Series resultРАБОТЯГИ 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2