Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Ragdollwin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ragdoll
Queen of Painsignature
Ahjit · 6 games
Terrorbladesignature
vtFαded · 6 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
vtFαded · 4 games
Lion
Yif · 4 games
Weaveroften banned
Yif · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Gy · 3 games
Ogre Magi
Azrael · 3 games
Pangolier
Gy · 3 games
Talon Esports
Banesignature
Fly · 6 games
Dark Willow
Hyde · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Hyde · 4 games
Ogre Magi
Fly · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 3 games
Grimstroke
Fly · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Gabbi · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
371 picks · 531 bans
Bane
365 picks · 264 bans
Snapfire
333 picks · 205 bans
Weaver
315 picks · 725 bans
Queen of Pain
242 picks · 337 bans
Io
240 picks · 601 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 155 bans
Ember Spirit
237 picks · 307 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Ragdoll
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Ragdoll
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:17
Ragdoll 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 40:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusavtFαded
Wraith KingGabbi
NecrophosAhjit
Ember SpiritMikoto
MarsGy
Death Prophetkpii
GrimstrokeYif
PangolierHyde
LionAzrael
BaneFly
Game 2prediction correct29:3
Ragdoll 52%Talon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 39:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingvtFαded
MorphlingGabbi
Dragon KnightAhjit
Queen of PainMikoto
MarsGy
Timbersawkpii
Death ProphetAzrael
Nyx AssassinHyde
Dark WillowYif
Ogre MagiFly
Model check result
Model favoriteRagdoll · 52%
Series resultRagdoll 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2