DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionRERandoms Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Legacywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Randoms Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Legacy
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Hyko · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Hyko · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
FCR · 1 game
Clockwerk
Hyko · 1 game
Disruptor
Gardick · 1 game
Jakiro
Gardick · 1 game
Legion Commander
FCR · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
349 picks · 259 bans
Rubick
349 picks · 330 bans
Hoodwink
340 picks · 396 bans
Pangolier
327 picks · 490 bans
Snapfire
304 picks · 265 bans
Sven
290 picks · 303 bans
Windranger
286 picks · 393 bans
Dragon Knight
285 picks · 453 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Legacy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Legacy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:24
Randoms Esports 31%Legacy 69%
The model gave 69% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy in 26:16.
Game 2prediction correct5:25
Randoms Esports 31%Legacy 69%
The model gave 69% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy in 23:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 69%
Series resultLegacy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2