Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionRERandoms Esportswin 1:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TRocketloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Randoms Esports
No games played over 6 months.
TRocket
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 280 bans
Marci
288 picks · 536 bans
Tusk
277 picks · 235 bans
Undying
264 picks · 451 bans
Pangolier
242 picks · 482 bans
Primal Beast
226 picks · 533 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 316 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Randoms Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% TRocket
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Randoms Esports 49%TRocket 51%
The model gave 51% on TRocket — the game was taken by Randoms Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteTRocket · 51%
Series resultRandoms Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1