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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ravenswin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CDUB Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ravens

Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 14 games
14%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Cara · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
d1smar · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
PiPi · 9 games
22%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
29%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
43%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
29%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
43%

CDUB Esports

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 8 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
islA · 7 games
57%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
Mark · 7 games
86%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Double King · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mark · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Duster · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
695 picks · 477 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
600 picks · 638 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
570 picks · 1114 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
531 picks · 498 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
521 picks · 1235 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
478 picks · 1046 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
460 picks · 678 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
454 picks · 920 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 67%
Hero pool strength62% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:4
Ravens 41%CDUB Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 36:15.
Game 2prediction correct32:11
Ravens 41%CDUB Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 29:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 59%
Series resultRavens 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2