The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Ravensloss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
No Runeswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ravens
Monkey Kingsignature
DaaD- · 6 games
Tinysignature
d1smar · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Cara · 5 games
Bane
Cara · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 4 games
No Runes
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
735 picks · 569 bans
Puck
510 picks · 1033 bans
Dawnbreaker
486 picks · 635 bans
Marci
452 picks · 798 bans
Winter Wyvern
376 picks · 415 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 387 bans
Razor
309 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Ravens
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:40
Ravens 69%No Runes 31%
The model gave 69% on Ravens — the game was taken by No Runes in 58:56.
Game 2prediction missed17:31
Ravens 69%No Runes 31%
The model gave 69% on Ravens — the game was taken by No Runes in 34:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 69%
Series resultNo Runes 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2