Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Ravenswin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
South Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ravens
Kunkkaoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
Mirana
d1smar · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Benjaz · 3 games
Disruptor
Cara · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Iooften banned
Cara · 2 games
Ogre Magi
Cara · 2 games
South Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
468 picks · 645 bans
Tiny
459 picks · 436 bans
Bane
448 picks · 274 bans
Sand King
411 picks · 560 bans
Dragon Knight
402 picks · 481 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 646 bans
Pangolier
362 picks · 559 bans
Keeper of the Light
334 picks · 664 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Ravens
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% South Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:16
Ravens 47%South Team 53%
The model gave 53% on South Team — the game was taken by Ravens in 48:13.
Game 2prediction missed29:7
Ravens 47%South Team 53%
The model gave 53% on South Team — the game was taken by Ravens in 26:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth Team · 53%
Series resultRavens 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2