?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Ravenswin 1:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The Cutloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ravens

Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 14 games
14%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Cara · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
d1smar · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
PiPi · 9 games
22%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
29%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
43%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
29%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
43%

The Cut

Silencer
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 14 games
79%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 12 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 11 games
36%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
bgod · 11 games
64%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
high_shaggy · 9 games
67%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
bgod · 8 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
691 picks · 473 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
612 picks · 644 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
568 picks · 1110 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
517 picks · 493 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
515 picks · 1235 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
481 picks · 1054 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
457 picks · 681 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
451 picks · 920 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 60%
Hero pool strength62% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Ravens 56%The Cut 44%
The model gave 56% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens.
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 56%
Series resultRavens 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1