Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ravens
Crystal Maiden
Cara · 13 games
Rubick
d1smar · 13 games
Snapfire
d1smar · 9 games
Tusk
PiPi · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
Mirana
Demon · 6 games
x5 Gaming
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 5 games
Mirana
Wij · 5 games
Enchantress
FCR · 4 games
Treant Protector
Wij · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
FCR · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
FCR · 3 games
Witch Doctor
FCR · 3 games
Clinkz
Benny · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1001 picks · 674 bans
Tiny
658 picks · 482 bans
Nature's Prophet
607 picks · 958 bans
Tusk
558 picks · 435 bans
Snapfire
521 picks · 357 bans
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1160 bans
Treant Protector
506 picks · 494 bans
Disruptor
502 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% x5 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:32
Ravens 50%x5 Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by Ravens in 43:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordBenjaz
Anti-MageBenny
BatriderTaO
SnapfireFCR
Disruptord1smar
EnchantressWij
ClockwerkCara
Game 2prediction correct21:33
Ravens 48%x5 Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanBenjaz
MorphlingBenny
Dragon KnightTaO
TimbersawFCR
Rubickd1smar
MiranaWij
SilencerCara
Game 3prediction correct16:39
Ravens 48%x5 Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetBenjaz
MarciBenny
Ember SpiritTaO
Primal BeastFCR
Tuskd1smar
MiranaWij
EnchantressCara
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 50%
Series resultx5 Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3