Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Reaperloss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
IHC Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Reaper
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Fearless · 1 game
Dragon Knight
Fearless · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
Fearless · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Fearless · 1 game
Tiny
Fearless · 1 game
IHC Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
745 picks · 472 bans
Tusk
530 picks · 458 bans
Tiny
528 picks · 384 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 574 bans
Nature's Prophet
412 picks · 586 bans
Snapfire
385 picks · 258 bans
Death Prophet
372 picks · 619 bans
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 746 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed76:56
Reaper 40%IHC Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by Reaper in 1:07:59.
Game 2prediction correct7:29
Reaper 40%IHC Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 37:20.
Game 3prediction correct70:11
Reaper 40%IHC Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 32:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 60%
Series resultIHC Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3