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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Recast Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ViKin.ggloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Recast Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Alexxo · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
LastHero- · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
5up · 1 game
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
TANNER · 1 game
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
5up · 1 game
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Koma` · 1 game
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Koma` · 1 game
100%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Alexxo · 1 game
100%

ViKin.gg

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tobi · 6 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 6 games
17%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Seleri · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 5 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Seleri · 4 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Aramis · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
275 picks · 556 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
248 picks · 312 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
219 picks · 398 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
206 picks · 163 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
178 picks · 558 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
177 picks · 328 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
175 picks · 204 bans
58%
Wraith King
Wraith King
175 picks · 226 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Recast Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Recast Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:47
Recast Gaming 51%ViKin.gg 49%
The model gave 51% on Recast Gaming — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 31:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinKoma`
47% · 17 games53% · 11 games
BristlebackShad
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterLastHero-
64% · 39 games57% · 3 games
AxeKheZu
Axe
Tiny
TinyTANNER
49% · 10 games46% · 71 game
PuckBOOM
Puck
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden5up
44% · 47 games57% · 44 games
Keeper of the LightAramis
Keeper of the Light
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorAlexxo
44% · 40 games49% · 24 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct24:20
Recast Gaming 50%ViKin.gg 50%
The model gave 50% on Recast Gaming — the game was taken by Recast Gaming in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerKoma`
45% · 24 games53% · 45 games
Wraith KingShad
Wraith King
Kunkka
KunkkaTANNER
55% · 23 games52% · 26 games
Nature's ProphetKheZu
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterLastHero-
58% · 65 games41% · 85 games
PuckBOOM
Puck
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman5up
57% · 83 games57% · 3 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenAlexxo
43% · 43 games47% · 79 games
Nyx AssassinAramis
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct43:33
Recast Gaming 53%ViKin.gg 47%
The model gave 53% on Recast Gaming — the game was taken by Recast Gaming in 44:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKoma`
64% · 55 games42% · 27 games
Phantom AssassinShad
Phantom Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTANNER
55% · 131 game41% · 125 games
PuckBOOM
Puck
Slardar
SlardarLastHero-
56% · 18 games48% · 33 games
PangolierKheZu
Pangolier
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAlexxo
54% · 81 game39% · 58 games
GrimstrokeSeleri
Grimstroke
Lion
Lion5up
53% · 26 games48% · 68 games
Earth SpiritAramis
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteRecast Gaming · 53%
Series resultRecast Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3