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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Rectifyloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Kickedwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rectify

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MangO · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 8 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sans · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
Ponyo · 7 games
43%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Ws · 5 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
Ws · 5 games
20%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Sans · 4 games
25%

Team Kicked

Disruptor
Disruptor
Eyyou · 2 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Abat · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Eyyou · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Sam_H · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Sam_H · 1 game
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jing · 1 game
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Sam_H · 1 game
0%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Sam_H · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
724 picks · 609 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
560 picks · 489 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
436 picks · 1048 bans
57%
Doom
Doom
421 picks · 692 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 993 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
387 picks · 370 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
383 picks · 606 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Team Kicked
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Kicked
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:38
Rectify 47%Team Kicked 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Kicked — the game was taken by Team Kicked in 32:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWonder'boy
50% · 43 games60% · 175 games
SlarkAbat
Slark
Magnus
MagnusWs
36% · 48 games51% · 84 games
Dark SeerSam_H
Dark Seer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMarb
49% · 124 games53% · 56 games
Spirit BreakerEyyou
Spirit Breaker
Clinkz
ClinkzHated
44% · 5 games55% · 147 games
TechiesJing
Techies
Rubick
RubickSans
46% · 242 games
Game 2prediction missed34:20
Rectify 47%Team Kicked 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Kicked — the game was taken by Rectify in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMarb
51% · 129 games51% · 65 games
LifestealerAbat
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWonder'boy
41% · 156 games53% · 247 games
DoomSam_H
Doom
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritWs
52% · 9 games48% · 133 games
Skywrath MageJing
Skywrath Mage
Techies
TechiesHated
52% · 78 games58% · 32 games
OracleEyyou
Oracle
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSans
48% · 105 games
Game 3prediction correct38:35
Rectify 47%Team Kicked 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Kicked — the game was taken by Team Kicked in 1:10:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistMarb
53% · 150 games46% · 95 games
TerrorbladeAbat
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainWonder'boy
55% · 97 games51% · 136 games
DoomSam_H
Doom
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderWs
43% · 75 games46% · 228 games
RubickJing
Rubick
Techies
TechiesHated
51% · 143 games56% · 60 games
SilencerEyyou
Silencer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSans
47% · 54 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Kicked · 55%
Series resultTeam Kicked 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3