Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs predictionRFRed flowerloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CDEC Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Red flower
Abaddon
sheep · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Killa · 2 games
Spectreoften banned
doodle · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
doodle · 1 game
Dark Willow
sheep · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
doodle · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Killa · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Killa · 1 game
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
536 picks · 365 bans
Queen of Pain
469 picks · 573 bans
Mars
422 picks · 611 bans
Weaver
422 picks · 693 bans
Kunkka
349 picks · 544 bans
Spirit Breaker
340 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
318 picks · 159 bans
Wraith King
278 picks · 367 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% Red flower
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:32
Red flower 37%CDEC Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 26:40.
Game 2prediction correct27:47
Red flower 37%CDEC Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 42:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 63%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2