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DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Red Submarinewin 2:1
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TeamCompromisoloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Red Submarine

No games played over 6 months.

TeamCompromiso

Zeus
Zeus
Panda · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
80%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 4 games
25%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Genek · 4 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Genek · 4 games
50%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
kendallx · 3 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Panda · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
512 picks · 709 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
425 picks · 695 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
422 picks · 311 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 399 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
377 picks · 633 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
376 picks · 864 bans
58%
Magnus
Magnus
375 picks · 992 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 501 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% TeamCompromiso
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% TeamCompromiso
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:30
Red Submarine 33%TeamCompromiso 67%
The model gave 67% on TeamCompromiso — the game was taken by TeamCompromiso in 38:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeArgius
47% · 73 games41% · 111 games
SvenDaaD-
Sven
Sniper
SniperS1RENM
53% · 52 games47% · 95 games
SlardarAdrx
Slardar
Tiny
Tinylffy
53% · 214 games53% · 33 games
Ancient ApparitionPanda
Ancient Apparition
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenJimmyCoff666
60% · 134 games49% · 234 games
RubickGenek
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed36:35
Red Submarine 35%TeamCompromiso 65%
The model gave 65% on TeamCompromiso — the game was taken by Red Submarine in 40:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterArgius
51% · 190 games46% · 99 games
AlchemistDaaD-
Alchemist
Tiny
TinyS1RENM
56% · 246 games44% · 143 games
TerrorbladeAdrx
Terrorblade
Ringmaster
Ringmasterlffy
56% · 5 games49% · 142 games
WeaverPanda
Weaver
Silencer
SilencerJimmyCoff666
51% · 18 games49% · 75 games
WindrangerGenek
Windranger
Game 3prediction missed39:23
Red Submarine 30%TeamCompromiso 70%
The model gave 70% on TeamCompromiso — the game was taken by Red Submarine in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenArgius
41% · 93 games48% · 56 games
LifestealerDaaD-
Lifestealer
Kunkka
KunkkaS1RENM
51% · 30 games58% · 105 games
Dark SeerAdrx
Dark Seer
Jakiro
JakiroJimmyCoff666
43% · 129 games65% · 63 games
MagnusGenek
Magnus
Ringmaster
Ringmasterlffy
38% · 4 games56% · 32 games
SilencerPanda
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeamCompromiso · 81%
Series resultRed Submarine 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3