BLAST Slam VII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
REKONIXwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
REKONIX
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
inYourdreaM · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 12 games
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 8 games
Kezsignature
TraVins · 8 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
dalul · 7 games
Gyrocoptersignature
TraVins · 7 games
Execration
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 24 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 20 games
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
Jakirooften banned
cml · 19 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 16 games
Snapfire
Shanks · 14 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Bob · 14 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Bob · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
678 picks · 840 bans
Tiny
571 picks · 572 bans
Tusk
501 picks · 424 bans
Warlock
472 picks · 334 bans
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 1145 bans
Ember Spirit
407 picks · 687 bans
Mars
397 picks · 620 bans
Shadow Fiend
394 picks · 1028 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 52%
Hero pool strength57% REKONIX
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total51% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:21
REKONIX 52%Execration 48%
The model gave 52% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 52:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerFbz
BeastmasterTino-
TinyTraVins
Void SpiritBob
Sand KinginYourdreaM
RubickShanks
PhoenixVarizh
Techiescml
Hoodwinkdalul
Game 2prediction correct32:27
REKONIX 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 40:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaTraVins
Void SpiritBob
Primal BeastFbz
TidehunterTino-
Sand KinginYourdreaM
HoodwinkShanks
Rubickdalul
Enchantresscml
DisruptorVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 51%
Series resultREKONIX 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2