?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
REKONIXloss 1:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

REKONIX

Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 9 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Varizh · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 6 games
67%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Varizh · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
dalul · 6 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
inYourdreaM · 5 games
80%
Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 5 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dalul · 4 games
50%

Talon Esports

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 23 games
61%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Jhocam · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Jhocam · 18 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jhocam · 17 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ws · 16 games
63%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ws · 15 games
47%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ws · 14 games
57%
Windranger
Windranger
Jhocam · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
409 picks · 368 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
372 picks · 188 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
348 picks · 886 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
309 picks · 354 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
287 picks · 242 bans
48%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 810 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
282 picks · 136 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
276 picks · 688 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:23
REKONIX 32%Talon Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 48:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaTraVins
60% · 137 games48% · 208 games
Medusa23savage
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFbz
52% · 331 game42% · 195 games
TimbersawMikoto
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightinYourdreaM
54% · 305 games47% · 341 game
PangolierWs
Pangolier
Pudge
Pudgedalul
51% · 32 games53% · 107 games
Naga SirenOli
Naga Siren
Warlock
WarlockVarizh
48% · 197 games44% · 151 game
HoodwinkQ
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed13:3
REKONIX 29%Talon Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by REKONIX in 22:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFbz
50% · 214 games51% · 168 games
Ursa23savage
Ursa
Morphling
MorphlingTraVins
47% · 150 games48% · 213 games
MarsWs
Mars
Pangolier
PangolierinYourdreaM
46% · 266 games42% · 222 games
Queen of PainMikoto
Queen of Pain
Rubick
Rubickdalul
49% · 79 games63% · 152 games
Naga SirenOli
Naga Siren
Warlock
WarlockVarizh
46% · 176 games57% · 130 games
BaneQ
Bane
Game 3prediction correct7:31
REKONIX 33%Talon Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 30:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTraVins
53% · 239 games53% · 314 games
Dragon Knight23savage
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierinYourdreaM
46% · 386 games51% · 206 games
Centaur WarrunnerWs
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsFbz
43% · 180 games56% · 425 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireVarizh
50% · 185 games47% · 151 game
WindrangerQ
Windranger
Tusk
Tuskdalul
45% · 406 games56% · 300 games
PugnaOli
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 82%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3