DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
REKONIXloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TATeam Aureuswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
REKONIX
Hoodwink
dalul · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 4 games
Disruptor
Varizh · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
inYourdreaM · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
inYourdreaM · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
Varizh · 3 games
Snapfire
dalul · 3 games
Team Aureus
Snapfire
Tims · 5 games
Bristleback
Force · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Force · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
Bane
Skem · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
305 picks · 762 bans
Disruptor
295 picks · 275 bans
Shadow Shaman
269 picks · 173 bans
Pugna
264 picks · 290 bans
Dawnbreaker
262 picks · 712 bans
Tusk
257 picks · 245 bans
Marci
255 picks · 725 bans
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 593 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Aureus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:32
REKONIX 43%Team Aureus 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 35:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterTraVins
Templar AssassinNatsumi
MarsFbz
Sand KingYopaj
LeshracinYourdreaM
SlardarForce
Marcidalul
SnapfireTims
DisruptorVarizh
DazzleSkem
Game 2prediction correct11:23
REKONIX 45%Team Aureus 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 31:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenTraVins
GyrocopterNatsumi
EarthshakerFbz
Shadow FiendYopaj
LeshracinYourdreaM
AbaddonForce
Snapfiredalul
Naga SirenSkem
SilencerVarizh
DisruptorTims
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aureus · 60%
Series resultTeam Aureus 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2