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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
REKONIXloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Aureuswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

REKONIX

Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 8 games
63%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Varizh · 5 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dalul · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Varizh · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
inYourdreaM · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dalul · 4 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
inYourdreaM · 4 games
100%
Bane
Bane
Varizh · 3 games
67%

Team Aureus

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 10 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 10 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Tims · 7 games
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 5 games
80%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 5 games
80%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
359 picks · 327 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
335 picks · 836 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
307 picks · 159 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
290 picks · 329 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 781 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
279 picks · 247 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
273 picks · 124 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
267 picks · 689 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Team Aureus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:19
REKONIX 45%Team Aureus 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 38:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorTraVins
48% · 67 games50% · 64 games
Troll WarlordNatsumi
Troll Warlord
Puck
PuckinYourdreaM
47% · 270 games49% · 260 games
BristlebackForce
Bristleback
Marci
MarciFbz
44% · 155 games60% · 172 games
EarthshakerYopaj
Earthshaker
Tusk
Tuskdalul
49% · 337 games50% · 157 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorVarizh
50% · 13 games57% · 189 games
PugnaSkem
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed34:12
REKONIX 45%Team Aureus 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by REKONIX in 30:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTraVins
57% · 197 games43% · 205 games
AbaddonNatsumi
Abaddon
Invoker
InvokerinYourdreaM
50% · 141 game49% · 157 games
LeshracYopaj
Leshrac
Batrider
BatriderFbz
49% · 318 games51% · 165 games
UndyingForce
Undying
Tusk
Tuskdalul
52% · 326 games47% · 336 games
DawnbreakerSkem
Dawnbreaker
Disruptor
DisruptorVarizh
55% · 147 games47% · 266 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct22:20
REKONIX 46%Team Aureus 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 39:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendTraVins
51% · 203 games47% · 192 games
MedusaNatsumi
Medusa
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFbz
51% · 232 games48% · 225 games
InvokerYopaj
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritinYourdreaM
56% · 142 games55% · 273 games
BristlebackForce
Bristleback
Clockwerk
Clockwerkdalul
55% · 307 games46% · 141 game
UndyingSkem
Undying
Disruptor
DisruptorVarizh
45% · 136 games45% · 189 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aureus · 57%
Series resultTeam Aureus 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3