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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
REKONIXloss 1:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

REKONIX

Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 8 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Varizh · 7 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
dalul · 6 games
67%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Varizh · 5 games
80%
Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 5 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
inYourdreaM · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dalul · 4 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
inYourdreaM · 4 games
100%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 30 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 17 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 16 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
BEYOND · 15 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
43%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
401 picks · 362 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
358 picks · 184 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 874 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
304 picks · 350 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
284 picks · 800 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
284 picks · 247 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
281 picks · 136 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
274 picks · 688 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:22
REKONIX 35%Yakult Brothers 65%
The model gave 65% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by REKONIX in 42:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoTraVins
41% · 9 games45% · 25 games
Anti-Mageflyfly
Anti-Mage
Sand King
Sand KingFbz
54% · 125 games43% · 134 games
Marszeal
Mars
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritinYourdreaM
51% · 194 games56% · 156 games
Queen of PainEmo
Queen of Pain
Pudge
Pudgedalul
39% · 32 games55% · 97 games
EnchantressBoBoKa
Enchantress
Disruptor
DisruptorVarizh
45% · 148 games56% · 96 games
Naga SirenPoloson
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction correct13:28
REKONIX 32%Yakult Brothers 68%
The model gave 68% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 34:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordTraVins
45% · 74 games51% · 115 games
LeshracEmo
Leshrac
Mars
MarsFbz
40% · 129 games51% · 153 games
Dark Seerzeal
Dark Seer
Invoker
InvokerinYourdreaM
54% · 74 games51% · 42 games
Anti-Mageflyfly
Anti-Mage
Dark Willow
Dark Willowdalul
48% · 134 games52% · 43 games
SlarkBoBoKa
Slark
Pugna
PugnaVarizh
54% · 134 games52% · 192 games
DisruptorPoloson
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct24:32
REKONIX 34%Yakult Brothers 66%
The model gave 66% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 52:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTraVins
45% · 299 games50% · 196 games
Ursaflyfly
Ursa
Pangolier
PangolierFbz
42% · 414 games56% · 246 games
InvokerEmo
Invoker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PaininYourdreaM
40% · 225 games57% · 346 games
Monkey Kingzeal
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritdalul
48% · 298 games52% · 422 games
Storm SpiritBoBoKa
Storm Spirit
Silencer
SilencerVarizh
54% · 124 games58% · 150 games
Naga SirenPoloson
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 78%
Series resultYakult Brothers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3