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DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Resp Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Lion
Lionsignature
Kaka · 23 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Kaka · 17 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 13 games
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
Emo · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
lou · 11 games
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
天命 · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Emo · 10 games
70%
Mirana
Miranasignature
天命 · 10 games
70%

Resp Gaming

Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
67%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
100%
Bane
Baneoften banned
QYQX · 1 game
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Juju · 1 game
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
生死 · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
QYQX · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
生死 · 1 game
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Juju · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
516 picks · 335 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
445 picks · 239 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
401 picks · 180 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
351 picks · 324 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 507 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 291 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
292 picks · 132 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
290 picks · 511 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Resp Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:13
Yakult Brothers 78%Resp Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 37:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
Viperlou
54% · 124 games51% · 142 games
Necrophosukiyo
Necrophos
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBEYOND
51% · 173 games52% · 31 game
Outworld DestroyerButterflyEffect
Outworld Destroyer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEmo
52% · 339 games46% · 261 game
Tidehunter生死
Tidehunter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightKaka
51% · 172 games46% · 319 games
Dark WillowJuju
Dark Willow
Mirana
Mirana天命
48% · 183 games51% · 238 games
BaneQYQX
Bane
Game 2prediction correct31:21
Yakult Brothers 77%Resp Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 36:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzlou
54% · 111 games52% · 91 game
Necrophosukiyo
Necrophos
Timbersaw
TimbersawBEYOND
39% · 276 games56% · 214 games
Doom生死
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierEmo
46% · 319 games51% · 347 games
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Ember Spirit
Techies
Techies天命
43% · 191 game50% · 200 games
GyrocopterJuju
Gyrocopter
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanKaka
51% · 115 games59% · 160 games
Winter WyvernQYQX
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 91%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2