Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Rest Farmerswin 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GGHOSTIKLENOVOloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
GHOSTIKLENOVO
Kunkkaoften banned
chempik · 2 games
Tiny
lupsione · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
mangekyou · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
chempik · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
mangekyou · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
chempik · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 351 bans
Vengeful Spirit
337 picks · 332 bans
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 520 bans
Mars
313 picks · 459 bans
Techies
302 picks · 232 bans
Hoodwink
295 picks · 172 bans
Batrider
288 picks · 537 bans
Pangolier
282 picks · 431 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% GHOSTIKLENOVO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:8
Rest Farmers 64%GHOSTIKLENOVO 36%
The model gave 64% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by GHOSTIKLENOVO in 32:51.
Game 2prediction missed8:27
Rest Farmers 64%GHOSTIKLENOVO 36%
The model gave 64% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by GHOSTIKLENOVO in 25:47.
Game 3prediction missed27:44
Rest Farmers 64%GHOSTIKLENOVO 36%
The model gave 64% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by GHOSTIKLENOVO in 48:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 64%
Series resultRest Farmers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3