European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rest Farmerswin 2:1series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Monteloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Monte
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 8 games
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 7 games
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 6 games
Slardaroften banned
Infernal · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
456 picks · 688 bans
Crystal Maiden
455 picks · 198 bans
Batrider
443 picks · 859 bans
Tiny
435 picks · 591 bans
Rubick
417 picks · 182 bans
Mars
403 picks · 644 bans
Techies
394 picks · 305 bans
Pangolier
393 picks · 689 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 28%
Hero pool strength53% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:34
Rest Farmers 80%Monte 20%
The model gave 80% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Monte in 43:24.
Game 2prediction missed37:35
Rest Farmers 80%Monte 20%
The model gave 80% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Monte in 1:06:43.
Game 3prediction missed23:32
Rest Farmers 80%Monte 20%
The model gave 80% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Monte in 40:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 80%
Series resultRest Farmers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3